ISLAMABAD: The Indian subcontinent may experience a significantly weakened monsoon season this year due to the development of the El Niño weather phenomenon, according to high-level forecasts from the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). In a statement to the media, PMD spokesperson Anjum Nazir Zaigham warned that the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean is expected to gain momentum in the coming months, potentially evolving into a “super El Niño” by the end of August or September.
This climate pattern is historically linked to suppressed rainfall across South Asia, as it disrupts the traditional wind patterns that drive the monsoon from the ocean toward the land. Mr. Zaigham explained that while the early part of the summer might still see some activity, the intensification of El Niño later in the season typically results in below-average precipitation. This shift poses a potential challenge for the country’s agricultural sector, which relies heavily on seasonal rains for summer crops and water reservoir replenishment.
Meteorologists are closely monitoring the transition from the current neutral conditions to this warming phase. The PMD has indicated that the impact of a “Super El Niño” can vary, but it often leads to drier-than-usual conditions in Pakistan and neighboring regions. Authorities are advising stakeholders in water management and agriculture to prepare for a possible reduction in water availability. As the summer progresses, the PMD will continue to issue updated advisories to help the nation mitigate the environmental and economic effects of this significant global weather event.
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