Karachi: Pakistan’s inflation rate is likely to slow slightly in September, but rising energy prices and uncertainty in the global oil market could keep inflation under pressure.
Topline Securities estimates that the annual rate of consumer price index (CPI) in September could be between 10.25 and 10.75 percent. The officially recorded inflation rate in August was 11.15 percent, while it was 9.2 percent in July. The final September figure will be released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
According to the analysis, prices are expected to increase by about 1.3 percent on a monthly basis in September. This is mainly due to the increase in fuel and electricity prices. According to the topline, fuel prices increased by about 6.5 percent on a monthly basis in September, while housing, water, electricity and gas costs also saw significant pressure.
Additional costs in the power sector have also increased the pressure on consumers. According to the topline, electricity prices are expected to increase by about 9.58 percent on a monthly basis in September. In addition, LPG prices were also recorded to increase.
Food prices also do not appear to be fully stable. The prices of some fresh vegetables and onions increased, however, the decline in the prices of tomatoes and eggs reduced the overall pressure to some extent.
Global oil prices will play a major role in the future trend of inflation. According to financial sector estimates, crude oil prices may remain between $90 and $100 per barrel for the rest of September and October. Pakistan imports a large part of its oil and gas requirements, so a rise in global energy prices could impact domestic fuel, electricity and transportation costs.
The current situation indicates that the annual inflation rate in September may be slightly lower than in August, but it is premature to call this reduction a significant relief in prices. If the pressure in the global energy market persists, inflation pressures may increase again in the coming months.
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, national CPI inflation was 11.15 percent in August 2026. In the same month, inflation was recorded at 10.4 percent in urban areas and 12.2 percent in rural areas.
We welcome your contributions to The Pakistan Observer. Submit your blogs, opinion pieces, press releases and news features to our editorial team.
Please send your submissions to our News Desk or Editorial team. We look forward to hearing from writers, journalists and contributors.
