The first October shipment offers relief. Protecting households, industry and electricity supplies through winter will require more than procurement alone.
Pakistan has received its first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo of October. The vessel’s arrival restarted regasification at one terminal, but it did not settle the larger question: how can the country protect household supply, industrial production and electricity reliability if winter cargoes remain uncertain?
The Qatari vessel Al-Areesh berthed at Engro’s terminal on 13 October, with regasification reported at about 150 million cubic feet per day. The second terminal, operated by Pakistan GasPort, had no LNG inventory and was not operating.
Geo News reported that neither terminal was regasifying from 9 to 13 October and that the power sector was receiving about 38 million cubic feet per day for generation on 13 October. Those figures describe the period before the new cargo began flowing; they should not be mistaken for a current post-arrival allocation.
The vulnerability is not simply a shortage of ships. Pakistan’s supply outlook has moved from surplus concerns earlier in the year to import uncertainty and winter demand pressure. Long-term arrangements can provide a foundation, but disruptions, limited delivery flexibility and weak seasonal coordination can leave the system exposed in either direction.
A cargo arriving today can ease pressure without guaranteeing fuel for the weeks ahead.
A plan on paper is not a secured supply
The Petroleum Division’s proposed November-to-February winter plan estimates that 24 LNG cargoes would be needed for demand on the Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) network.
Reports describe 15 cargoes for domestic demand, including two contingency cargoes, and nine for power generation. The proposed plan gives domestic consumers priority during severe shortages, while allowing possible curtailments for industry, captive power, fertiliser and compressed natural gas users.
The procurement and cost figures need careful reading. Separate reporting describes a costed programme of 22 cargoes: 12 long-term supplies and 10 spot-market cargoes, with an estimated import bill of about US$1.293 billion.
That is not the same as the reported 24-cargo requirement. The proposed mix, contingency volumes and confirmed deliveries require reconciliation. The cost estimate is a planning figure, not a final award or an assured bill; spot prices and the energy quantity in each cargo matter.
More recent reporting adds another figure to the planning picture. On 20 October, ARY News reported, citing government sources, that Pakistan planned to procure 18 imported LNG cargoes for November to February, with preference given to supplies from Qatar. Spot purchases could be considered if Qatari supplies did not arrive in time to meet winter demand.
This reported target should be read alongside the previously reported 24-cargo requirement and 22-cargo costed programme. Their respective scope, status and delivery assumptions need clarification.
These distinctions matter to public debate. A forecast requirement is not a delivery schedule, and a proposed spot purchase is not a secured cargo.
The government should show what is contracted, what has been awarded, what is being negotiated, what has physically arrived and what remains a contingency. It should also explain price assumptions, financing and how foreign-exchange and fiscal costs will be handled.
One fuel shortage can become two reliability problems
Gas serves needs that cannot simply be exchanged. Households use it for cooking and heating. Industry uses it as process fuel, feedstock and, in some facilities, fuel for captive electricity generation. Grid-connected power stations use regasified LNG.
Cutting a plant’s gas may protect another customer only if the gas can be physically and contractually redirected. It can also leave the electricity system needing replacement generation.
Industrial curtailment also has consequences beyond a factory’s meter. An interruption may affect linked stages of production, export schedules and the time and cost needed to restart equipment.
Industry groups have warned about pressure on processing and export activity, but the available reporting does not justify a precise forecast of winter export losses. Allocation should be informed by verified constraints, minimum safe operating needs, viable alternatives, employment and the value of production—not by assumptions that every unit of gas has the same use.
The same coordination is needed on the power side. If industry shifts from captive generation to grid supply, local network capacity and reliability must be checked.
If households move from gas appliances to electric heating, distribution feeders and transformers must be able to serve the added load. A measure that moves demand from one network to another can relocate the bottleneck rather than remove it.
Use electricity flexibility carefully
Pakistan can reduce some gas-fired generation in selected hours by using available non-gas generation efficiently. Hydropower, nuclear, domestic coal, solar and wind can contribute when plants are available and the electricity can be delivered where needed.
Weather, hydrology, outages, reserve requirements and transmission congestion all limit what can be substituted. Dispatch decisions should reflect those operating realities.
Battery storage can shift electricity from periods of surplus solar output to evening peaks, provide fast balancing and reduce some gas-fired generation at the margin. The International Energy Agency describes batteries as a source of short-duration flexibility.
Their contribution depends on power rating, stored energy, duration, charging source and state of charge. Batteries store electricity; they do not supply pipeline gas for cooking, industrial heat or feedstock, and they cannot replace weeks of missing LNG.
Projects not already operational should not be counted as guaranteed relief for the approaching winter.
Demand response can also help where consumers can safely move electricity use. Large users may be able to shift pumping, cooling or batch processes for agreed periods in return for clear incentives.
Operators need to specify notice, duration, compensation and the timing of recovery so that demand does not rebound together into a new peak. Shifting electricity use does not automatically save gas: the result depends on which generators change output and what constraints are relieved.
Electric heating may ease gas-network pressure over time, but a blanket switch to resistance heaters could raise winter electricity peaks. Efficient heat pumps, insulation and appropriate appliance standards are more promising where buildings, household costs and local grid capacity support them.
For this winter, household guidance should focus on safe appliance use, practical efficiency and protection for vulnerable consumers.
A practical winter operating agenda
First, publish a regular system-wide supply and cost dashboard. It should distinguish cargoes scheduled, contracted, awarded, arrived and treated as contingency; show terminal availability and regasification; and include domestic production, pipeline constraints and sector allocations.
Clear status information gives operators and businesses time to plan around actual conditions.
Second, coordinate the Petroleum and Power Divisions, gas utilities, electricity system operators and regulators through a joint winter operating assessment. Test delayed cargoes, production interruptions, colder weather and generation outages against the same assumptions.
For each scenario, state what can be shifted, which reserves are available and which actions risk essential services.
Third, publish curtailment rules and notice periods before shortages deepen. Protect essential household needs, especially for vulnerable consumers.
For industry, account for safe shutdowns, process requirements, feedstock, export commitments and the cost of restarting. Coordinate gas restrictions with power dispatch so protecting one customer group does not create avoidable electricity outages elsewhere.
Fourth, assess emergency LNG purchases against the cost of disruption they may prevent, while making any public subsidy explicit and targeted. In parallel, pursue measures that can deliver within realistic timescales: efficient dispatch, maintenance, energy conservation, voluntary demand response and operational storage where it is already available.
Finally, report results after winter: cargoes delivered against schedule, terminal availability, gas supplied to each sector, electricity generated by fuel, curtailments, interruptions and emergency procurement costs.
Comparing the forecast with actual demand and supply would improve the next season’s procurement and infrastructure decisions.
Pakistan cannot remove its exposure to imported LNG before this winter. It can, however, avoid treating each cargo as a complete solution. Procurement, conservation, industrial continuity and electricity operations need to be assessed together.
Batteries, renewables and flexible demand can reduce some gas-fired electricity needs, but they complement a secure fuel plan; they do not replace one.
The question is no longer only whether Pakistan can find more LNG. It is whether the country can manage the gas it has, the electricity it can produce and the demand it can safely shift—while giving households, industry and power operators clear, credible expectations.
